January 25, 2005

Food for Thought

A useless fact in words per minute:

Average speaking is about 150 words per minute (wpm).
Adults read at an average of 250-300 wpm.

With a typical paperback,
An hour of speaking represents 25 pages.
An average adult reads 40-50 pages per hour.

An odd quote:
If someone says you can have your cake and eat it too, they probably want to eat your cake.

Idea to ponder - Self-deception

My Conjecture -
The Myth of Missing Information: Individual tend to expect that information they don’t know will confirm their hopes even after information appears to the contrary.
If it’s true, than this advice ought to follow. Be careful. The more you believe something the more unprepared you’ll tend to be if it fails. (and that age old bit of advice - Ignore contrary information at your peril.)
Interestingly, Bayesian logic uses logic similar to the myth of missing information. To paraphrase Bayesian logic, you start with your expectation and modify that by new information, both supporting and otherwise, to determine a new expectation. The extent that new information modifies your expectations is influence by how reliable you view that information. This process (old expectation -> new information -> new expectation) is repeated as each new piece of information comes in. (Clear as mud?)
As a final digression, I wonder if anyone has studied how well people follow Bayesian logic?

A bit more pessimist view:
Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true.


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